Gold falls over $3,312/oz, oil declines below $62 as US inventories surge. Markets cautious amid stalled peace talks and fading US-China trade momentum.
1. Geopolitical Tensions Return to the Spotlight
Ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel have stalled with no clear progress, adding to the region’s instability. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan are once again clashing along the Kashmir border, with minor confrontations blurring the Line of Control. In Eastern Europe, President Putin appointed a new, relatively unknown negotiator to lead Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine, raising questions about Moscow’s intentions.
These developments have not triggered a market-wide sell-off yet, but geopolitical risks remain high. Traders in energy and safe-haven assets should monitor any escalation closely.
2. Oil Prices Fall Sharply on US Inventory Spike
US crude oil inventories surged by more than 5 million barrels, catching markets off guard. Brent crude responded by dropping below $62 per barrel, erasing prior gains linked to trade optimism.
The bearish supply data has led to renewed pressure on energy stocks and short-term oil futures. Caution is advised before entering new long positions, and short setups may become more favorable if weak rebounds are observed.
3. Gold Retreats as Investors Take Profits
Gold dropped more than $2/oz, falling to around $3,312/oz as traders reacted to both profit-taking and continued uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. In Vietnam, the SJC gold price fell by over one million VND per tael.
While the broader geopolitical landscape remains tense, gold failed to attract sufficient safe-haven demand today. A cautious stance is recommended, avoiding premature entries until stronger support or new catalysts emerge.
4. Stock Markets Lose Momentum as Trade Optimism Fades
The initial rally following the US–China trade agreement appears to be losing steam. Investors are reassessing the effectiveness and implementation of the deal, leading to a mild correction across major equity markets.
With liquidity lower and sentiment mixed, equity traders should prioritize quality and defensive stocks over speculative momentum plays.
5. USD and CNY Edge Lower Against VND
Both USD/VND and CNY/VND declined slightly in today’s session. Forex traders remain focused on the upcoming US inflation data and potential signals from the Fed and European Central Bank.
Volatility in the forex market has narrowed, suggesting a range-bound trading environment in the near term. Conservative strategies with tight stop-losses are recommended.
Strategic Takeaways for Traders
| Asset Class | Movement | Suggested Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Down >$2/oz | Avoid catching bottoms; wait for clarity |
| Oil | Sharp drop | Watch for weak rebounds to consider shorts |
| Forex | Mild volatility | Trade ranges with controlled leverage |
| Equities | Losing momentum | Focus on defensive, high-quality stocks |
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