How does the ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea affect the global economy and financial markets? Get the latest detailed analysis!
On March 26, 2025, the United States announced a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea. This is a significant step toward easing regional tensions, but will it be enough to stabilize the economic and financial markets? Let’s analyze it with LiveTrade Pro!
Impact on Oil and Gold Prices
The ceasefire helps reduce geopolitical risks, leading to slight adjustments in oil and gold prices. However, if a long-term agreement is not reached, prices may experience significant volatility:
Oil Prices: Before the agreement, Brent crude oil prices reached $85 per barrel due to concerns over escalating conflict. After the ceasefire announcement, oil prices dropped to around $82 per barrel.
Gold Prices: As a safe-haven asset, gold prices adjusted slightly but remained high as investors continue to monitor the political situation.
Impact on Financial Markets
USD Index Rises: The US dollar remains above 104 points due to positive US economic data and the temporary stability of the market.
US Stock Market Gains: Key indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed slight increases thanks to investor optimism.
European and Asian Markets React Positively: Stock indices in Europe and Asia are also recovering following the ceasefire announcement.
US May Impose 25% Tariff on Copper – Industry Faces Pressure
Another significant development is that the US government is considering imposing a 25% tariff on copper, which could cause the price of the metal to rise sharply from $10,000 to $12,000 per ton.
Impacts on Manufacturing Industries: Sectors such as electronics, construction, and automotive may be significantly affected due to increased input material costs.
Impact on International Trade: Goldman Sachs warns that this tariff policy could disrupt supply chains, affecting 91% of goods imported into the US.
Ongoing US-China Trade Tensions
The US government has added more than 50 Chinese tech companies to its “Entity List,” restricting their access to US technology. This move increases trade tensions between the two countries and may impact:
Technology Supply Chains: AI, supercomputing, and server companies facing restrictions will struggle to develop new technologies.
Financial Markets: Major Chinese tech companies may face sell-offs, which could affect the entire sector.
Fed Maintains Stable Monetary Policy
According to data from CME FedWatch:
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 87.1%.
The likelihood of rate cuts in June rises to 59.5%.
This may help stabilize the financial markets and support economic growth.
In conclusion, the Black Sea ceasefire agreement is a positive signal that helps reduce regional tensions, but it is not enough to create long-term stability. Meanwhile, tariff policies and trade tensions may still cause significant market fluctuations.
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