The gold price on September 18th witnessed a significant surge, with SJC gold bars hitting a new peak of 82 million VND/tael. Meanwhile, the global gold price experienced a slight decline, creating a gap of approximately 5.3 million VND/tael compared to the domestic market.
Domestic Gold Price Today
On September 18th, the domestic gold market experienced strong fluctuations, particularly for gold bars, which saw a sharp increase to 82 million VND/tael. Specifically:
- SJC gold bars: Major banks such as Agribank, BIDV, Vietcombank, and VietinBank, as well as gold and jewelry companies, are listing the selling price at 82 million VND/tael and the buying price at 80 million VND/tael.
- SJC 9999 gold rings: The buying price is 77.9 million VND/tael, and the selling price is 79.2 million VND/tael, an increase of 100,000 VND in both directions compared to the previous session.
- DOJI: In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, DOJI is maintaining a buying price of 78 million VND/tael and a selling price of 79.2 million VND/tael.
- PNJ: PNJ is listing the buying price of gold rings at 78 million VND/tael and the selling price at 79.2 million VND/tael.
gold bars increased sharply
Global Gold Price Today
Contrary to the upward trend of the domestic gold price, the global gold price on September 18th witnessed a decline, with spot gold falling by 13 USD to 2,570 USD/ounce. The futures gold price also decreased by 12.6 USD, closing at 2,596.3 USD/ounce.
This decline can be attributed to the recovery of the US dollar and a slight increase in Treasury yields, causing gold to lose 0.5% of its value after reaching a peak of 2,589.5 USD/ounce earlier in the week. However, investors are closely watching the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to make changes to its interest rate policy.
Forecasting the Fed’s Policy and Its Impact on Gold Prices
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the upcoming meeting is 63%, with a reduction of 50 basis points. However, some analysts believe that the Fed may only cut rates by 25 basis points, which has caused some concerns and led to a temporary decline in gold prices.
Bart Melek, a strategist at TD Securities, commented: “Some investors remain cautious that the Fed may only deliver a more modest rate cut than the market is expecting.”
Despite this, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold’s long-term potential, forecasting that gold prices could reach 2,700 USD/ounce by early 2025.
The Gap Between Domestic and Global Gold Prices
Currently, the domestic gold price is about 5.3 million VND/tael higher than the global gold price. According to Vietcombank’s exchange rate, the global gold price is equivalent to 76.7 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees). This gap continues to raise concerns about the sustainability of the domestic gold market, as domestic gold prices tend to fluctuate more than international prices.
The Gap Between Domestic and Global Gold Prices
Expert Opinion
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, demand for gold exchange-traded funds will increase, especially in the West. This could lead to a rise in gold prices in the long term, despite current fluctuations.
Conclusion
September 18th witnessed a significant increase in the domestic gold price, while the global gold price experienced a slight decline due to the impact of the US dollar and the anticipated Fed interest rate policy. The gap between the two markets has reached 5.3 million VND/tael, attracting significant attention from investors. Although short-term adjustments in gold prices are possible, experts remain optimistic about the long-term potential of gold, with forecasts suggesting that gold prices could reach 2,700 USD/ounce in the near future.
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