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Gold Market Update – August 16, 2024

Current Situation:

Gold prices rebounded during the trading session yesterday, driven by a strong recovery in the U.S. stock market. This resurgence reflects investor confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy, following better-than-expected retail sales and unemployment claims data. Despite this, the strength of the U.S. dollar has put pressure on gold prices.

Gold’s upward momentum was tempered as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the retail sales data. The precious metal rose by $9.1/oz to $2,457.3/oz in New York, but struggled to sustain gains as the dollar’s strength increased. As of 7 AM GMT today, gold is trading at $2,458.1/oz in Asia, equivalent to approximately 74.7 million VND per tael, up by 300,000 VND compared to yesterday morning.

U.S. retail sales for July increased by 1%, surpassing the forecasted 0.3% rise, and initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 227,000, against expectations of 235,000. These positive figures have led to increased USD strength and bond yields, exerting downward pressure on gold.

Market Outlook:

Although U.S. economic data is positive, it may not significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decision in September. The gold recovery trend could continue, but short-term market sentiment in Asia might lead to selling opportunities as gold approaches resistance levels.

Trading Strategies:

Sell:

  • Scenario 1: In the morning session, if Asian markets pressure gold prices, consider selling with targets at:
    • 2,457 – 55
    • 2,452 – 50
    • Extended target: 2,447 – 2,445
  • Scenario 2: If gold does not decline significantly in the European session, exit the sell position and consider buying.

Buy:

  • Scenario 1: In the European session, if gold declines but holds above the 2,44x support level, consider exiting the sell position and buying with targets of 5 – 10 points.

Note:

  • Be cautious during the European session, as market signals could experience significant volatility in the afternoon.

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