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Gold Prices Slide Amid Anticipation of U.S. CPI Report

Gold prices experienced a dip on August 13, 2024, as investors took profits despite a weaker USD and declining U.S. Treasury yields. The market is bracing for significant volatility ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report set to be released on Wednesday.

At the close of trading in New York, spot gold prices fell by $8.70 per ounce, or 0.35%, settling at $2,465.20 per ounce, according to Kitco data. As of 7:00 AM GMT today, August 14, gold prices in Asia dropped by $1.00 per ounce, trading at $2,464.20 per ounce. This translates to approximately 75.1 million VND per tael, down by 300,000 VND from the previous morning.

On August 12, gold reached a 10-day high, approaching the record of $2,483.60 per ounce set on July 17. Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 20%, driven by expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The momentum for gold prices weakened on Tuesday as tensions over Middle East conflicts eased, particularly with Iran not immediately acting on threats against Israel. Additionally, profit-taking by investors contributed to the downward trend.

Gold continues to receive support from the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts, as inflation in the world’s largest economy continues its downward trend. The U.S. Labor Department’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a 0.1% increase in July, below the 0.2% forecast, matching June’s rise.

Market expectations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Wednesday anticipate a 0.2% increase in July compared to June. A significant deviation from these expectations could lead to sharp fluctuations in gold prices. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% probability of the Fed lowering rates in the final three meetings of this year.

Major U.S. banks project a reduction of at least 1.75 percentage points in the Fed’s benchmark rate by mid-2025. Wells Fargo predicts a rate cut to 3.25-3.50% by mid-2025, with a total reduction of 1 percentage point expected in September and November 2024, followed by further cuts into 2025.

In the European session, if gold prices rise but fail to exceed $2,475-$2,477 per ounce, consider holding off on selling until the CPI data is released at 19:30 GMT. Market dynamics influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic indicators should be closely monitored for optimal trading strategies.

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