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Market and Investment Strategy for August 12, 2024

1. Gold Market Overview:

Gold prices held steady above $2,400/oz last week, closing at $2,431.7/oz on August 9. The stability in gold prices is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement a significant interest rate cut in September. According to FedWatch Tool data, there is a 49% chance of a 0.5 percentage point cut and a 51% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

Key Factors Supporting Gold Prices:

  • Decline in U.S. Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3.7% but has since recovered to around 3.94%, which benefits gold prices.
  • Weaker USD: The Dollar Index dropped 0.1% to 103.15 points on August 9, providing support for gold prices.
  • Positive Unemployment Data and Fed’s Optimistic Remarks: These factors have helped stabilize the stock market and bolster gold prices.

2. USD and Financial Markets:

Economic Calendar for August 12 – 16, 2024:

  • U.S. July Inflation Data: CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. This data could influence the Fed’s actions and impact gold prices.
  • July Retail Sales: Expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month. Stronger-than-expected results could support the USD, while weaker results might lower USD value and support gold prices.

3. Market Outlook:

  • Gold: The medium-term outlook for gold remains positive due to anticipated Fed rate cuts. However, investors should be attentive to the upcoming July CPI report, which could cause significant price fluctuations. Gold prices may continue to rise towards the $2,448-$2,450/oz range and potentially test the historical high around $2,483-$2,484/oz. Key support levels are at $2,412-$2,410/oz.

  • USD: Positive inflation and retail sales data could strengthen the USD and put pressure on gold prices. Conversely, weaker data might decrease USD value and support gold prices.

Trading Strategy for Gold on August 12, 2024:

  • Buy Strategy: If gold prices stay above $2,425/oz, aim for targets at $2,430 – $2,432/oz, with further targets at $2,435 – $2,437/oz.
  • Sell Strategy: If gold prices fall and close below $2,412/oz, consider switching to a sell strategy with a target at $2,400/oz.

Finance and Cryptocurrency:

With increased geopolitical tensions and a dovish Fed outlook, safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin may gain traction. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical events and economic data to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

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